You know the past five annual returns of a stock to be

$17\%,-7\%,10\%,-17\%,$ and $11\%.$ However, you believe

that the $-17\%$ return is less likely to occur in the future

than the rest. Thus, you place a probability of $0\mathrm{.}16$ on that

return and $0\mathrm{.}21$ on each of the other four returns.