You live in the San Francisco Bay area where earthquakes are not uncommon.Your house has a security alarm system against burglary, and it can be set off occasionally by an earthquake.Historically, there is a 6% chance that your house will be burglarized and there is a 2% chance that an earthquake will occur in your area.You can assume that the occurrences of burglary and earthquake are statistically independent.Based on your experience, your alarm will sound if the following events have occurred.

Earthquake True True False False Burglary Probability that Alarm will sound True 0.99 False 0.15 True 0.95 False 0.0001