You live in Uzbekistan and your revenues are in the form of som (Uzbek currency). You have an debt obligation of $1,000,000 due in 30 days. The current spot rate is e^so'm/$ = 10,507. There are a variety of potential spot rates 30 days in the future with different people holding different views. The table below shows these views and the weights they have.

Pr(*) = eso'm's Spot in 30 Days = 45% 10,535 so'm 10% 10,510 so'm 25% 10,500 so'm 20% 10,516 so'm Discuss when, how and why you should trade so'm for S