You manage a U.S. core equity portfolio that is sector-neutral to the S&P500 Index (its industry sector weights approximately match the S&P 500's). Taking a weighted average of the projected mean returns on the holdings, you forecast a portfolio return of 12%. You estimate a standard deviation of annual return of 22% based on a sample that consists of 100 observations, close to the long-run figure for the S&P 500. For the year-ahead return on the portfolio, assuming Normality for portfolio returns, you are asked to do the following:

1. Calculate and interpret a 90% confidence interval for portfolio return.
2. What is the probability that portfolio return will exceed 25%?
3. You can buy a one-year T-bill that yields 5%. What is the probability that your portfolios return will outperform the risk-free rate?