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You notice some insects in your house, and you think that they areeither flies, with probability 2/5, or moths, with probability 3/5. Then you notice

You notice some insects in your house, and you think that they areeither flies, with probability 2/5, or moths, with probability 3/5. Then you notice a bunch of them buzzing around your Christmas tree. The probability that flies would do this is 1/3 and the probability that moths would do this is 1/2. What is the probability, given this buzzing around the tree, that the insects are flies? Give your answerto three decimal places.

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