Question
You use todays spot rate of the Brazilian real to forecast the spot rate of the real for one month ahead. Todays spot rate is
You use todays spot rate of the Brazilian real to forecast the spot rate of the real for one month ahead. Todays spot rate is $.4558. Based on the spot exchange rates at the end of each of the last 6 months, the standard deviation is 4.09%. Using the VaR method, what is the maximum percentage loss of the Brazilian real over the next month based on a 95 percent confidence level? Use the spot exchange rates at the end of each of the last 6 months as shown below to conduct your analysis. If this loss occurs, what will be the new exchange rate conditions.
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