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You want to start your own coffee shop but you have no idea how big it should be. Your profit calculations for each coffee shop

You want to start your own coffee shop but you have no idea how big it should be. Your profit calculations for each coffee shop size related to a good, fair and poor market are reflected in the table below in 1000's. For instance if you are considering a very large coffee shop in poor market conditions you will make a loss of R160000.

Size of the

Coffee shop

Good

Market

(Rands)

Fair

Market

(Rands)

Poor

Market

(Rands)

Small

50

20

-10

Medium

80

30

-20

Large

100

30

-40

Very Large 300 25

-160

To make a meaningful decision, you are taking the following decision criteria's into account.

  1. What will your decision be based on the MAXIMAX criterion? (5)
  2. What will your decision be based on the MAXIMIN criterion? (5)
  3. What will your decision be based on the Equally likely criterion? (5)
  4. What will your decision be based on the criterion of realism using =0.8? (5)
  5. What will your decision be based on the MINIMAX criterion using the Opportunity loss table? (17)
  6. What will your decision be based on theEMV criteria using probabilities for

a Good market = 0.5, Fair market = 0.4 and a Poor market = 0.1.? (5)

  1. Will you pay R10000 for additional information? (8)

Use Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) calculation to support your answer.

  1. What will your decision be based onthe Expected Opportunity Loss (EOL)? Use MINIMAX table (5)

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