Question
You work for a U.S.-based company that conducts most of its international business in Mexico and estimate net cash flows next month from Mexico will
You work for a U.S.-based company that conducts most of its international business in Mexico and estimate net cash flows next month from Mexico will be $10,000,000 (assuming that you convert from Mexican pesos, MXN, to USD at the current spot rate). You estimate that the standard deviation of MXN monthly percentage changes is 3% and that the MXN will depreciate by 2% against the USD over the next month. Use the value at risk (VaR) method based on a 95% confidence interval to estimate your companys maximum expected loss due to its transaction exposure to the MXN over the next month both in percentage terms and in dollar terms.
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