1. Youareanewlyappointedprojectmanagerwithaprojectmanagementconsultancy.Your rstassignmentisto manage project oftheprogrammedreplacementofaproductionlineinalocalfactory. Theproductionlineassembleselectroniccomponents.Inordertominimize disruptiontoproduction,theupgradingworksaretotakeplaceinseveral phases (work packages).Eachphaseoftheworkinvolvesclosing downtheproductionline,strippingoutpartsofthelineandreplacingthat sectionwithnewequipment. Themainpeopleinvolvedintheprojectmanagementprocessare:

• theprojectmanager;
• theproductionmanager(responsibleforproductionoutput)
• externalelectricalandmechanicalengineers,asdesignconsultants;
• externalspecialistcontractors,asinstallersandcommissioners;
• externalspecialistdomesticandnominatedengineeringsubcontractors;
• externalspecialistsuppliers(ofallequipment);
• theHealthandSafetyExecutive(HSE);
• localauthorityinspectors(LAIs).

Atotalof50employeesworkontheproductionline.Thesepeoplewillbe temporarilylaidoffonfullpaywhilethelineiscloseddownforupgrading. Thecontractoranddesignengineershaveindicatedthatitshouldbepossibletocompletetheworksinninephases (work packages),eachrequiringaone-weekshutdown.

Foreachphase,themainworkelementswillbethefollowing:

• Shutdownproductionline(productionmanager).
• Removeoldsection(maincontractor).
• Upgradeandtestelectricalsupplies(engineeringsubcontractors).
• Installnewproductionlinesection(maincontrakctor).
• Commissionandtest(maincontractor
• Approvalsandacceptance(HSE,LAI,productionmanager).

Thefactoryownersclearlywishtokeepdowntimetoaminimum.Itis thereforeveryimportantthatgoodquality-managementsystemsareputin placeinordertoavoidanyerrorsorproblemsthatmayleadtodelaysorinterruptionsthatcouldhavebeenavoided. Anotherearlyrequirementisthedevelopmentofascheduleinorderto allowtimeestimatestobemadeforeachworkpackageandfortheprojectasawhole.Schedulescantypicallybebasedoneitherthecriticalpathmethod(CPM)ortheprogramevaluationandreviewtechnique(PERT). TablebelowshowsPERTvaluesforthevariousworkpackagesthatare involvedintheproject.

Work package	Optimistic estimate (Months)	Most likely estimate (Months)	Pessimistic estimate (Months)
A-B	4	8	12
B-C	4	12	20
B-D	8	12	16
B-E	8	16	24
C-F	4	20	32
D-F	8	16	24
E-F	8	16	24
F-G	4	12	20
G-H	8	12	16

Required:

1. Developaprecedence (network) diagram fortheproject
2. Compute path slack for each path and interpret each slack
3. Compute variances for each path and determine variance for a project.
4. Compute ES,EF, LS, and LF and slack time for each work package
5. Assume theBoard of the Company is a bit pessimistic about the completion of the project within the expected (projected) completion time and requires you to give the latest (maximum) time the project will take if 95.45% degree of confidence (or probability) is considered to capture the presumed risk. What will be the project's completion time under this scenario?(Hint: You can make normal distribution assumption)