Your boss asks you to forecast the return of the S&P 500 over the next year using scenario analysis. You identify the following scenarios, the expected return of the S&P 500 under each scenario, and the probability of each scenario as shown in the table below:

Scenario	Expected Return of S&P 500	Scenario Probability
Strong Growth	25%	15%
Moderate Growth	12%	45%
Weak Growth	5%	35%
Recession	-30%	5%

What is your forecasted return of the S&P 500 for next year?