• Your business is the production of umbrellas
• An outdoor concert is planned at Wembley Stadium in London
  • Your company has exclusive rights to umbrella sales and will deliver many umbrellas to each event
• The weather for the concert could be sunny or rainy
• Umbrellas can be transported by air, truck, or train
• Profit is not uncertain, but is dependent on
  • The arrival time of the umbrellas: early, last minute, or late
    • A penalty is assessed if the umbrellas arrive after the start of the concert
  • The weather more umbrellas are sold if it rains

For the following questions, refer only to the model and information above. Do not reference anything that is not explicitly shown within the graphic model above.

1. Of the events depicted in this graphic model, identify the uncertainties (2 pts)
2. What is the objective of this business, and how is it measured? (2 pts)
3. Hypothesize dependencies based on the description above. State each dependency you believe exists within the model (2 pts)
4. Identify any decisions evident within the model (2 pts)
5. Construct an influence diagram illustrating the uncertainties and dependencies (2 pts)
   1. Upgrade the diagram to a decision diagram by adding decision nodes as applicable