Question
Your company has developed a new energy drink and you are trying to decide whether to sell the recipe, or make and distribute it yourself.
Your company has developed a new energy drink and you are trying to decide whether to sell the recipe, or make and distribute it yourself.
A company will pay you $10 million for the recipe.
If your company makes the drink itself, it will cost $12 million to build a factory and distribution network.
Your analytics and marketing teams tell you there is a 35% chance the market response will be great, a 45% chance the market response will be decent with gross earnings of $15 million, and a 20% chance the market response will be poor with gross earnings of $5 million.
If the market response is great, there is a 20% chance the drink will be the new fad and you will make gross earnings of $50 million, a 60% chance the gross earnings will be $40 million, and a 20% chance the gross earnings will be $20 million.
What is the expected value from the Perfect Information Tree (just the perfect information tree, not EVPI).
Please put your answer in units of $millions, and round to 2 decimal places. For example, if the answer is 1,250,000, you enter it as 1.25
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