Your friend is trying to estimate how likely it is that the central banks will increase interest rates next month. They have assembled the following data: Current 30-day rate: 4.25% Current 60-day rate: 4.31%. Next Central Bank decision day: 30 days from today. At this meeting, they will either raise rates by 25 bps or do nothing. Your friend believes that this probability can be inferred since the expected future spot rate should equal the forward rate. (a) Assume your friend's thinking is correct. Compute the probability they are looking for. (b) Do you have any warnings to your friend about this calculation?