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You're planning to outsource 60% of your manufacturing function to a lower cost location sometime in the next six months. Suppose the value of the

You're planning to outsource 60% of your manufacturing function to a lower cost location sometime in the next six months. Suppose the value of the plant today is 100m. Your plan is to economise 60% from outsourcing. Risk uncertainty in the operating environment is estimated by an annualized standard deviation of 50% in cash flows. The risk-free rate of return is 8% per annum. Use the binomial option pricing approach with a time step of three months to value the option to outsource operations. Is there an optimal time for taking such an action?

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