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You're the boss of an investment bank's equities research team. Your five analysts are each trying to find the growth rate of dividends to input
You're the boss of an investment bank's equities research team. Your five analysts are each trying to find the growth rate of dividends to input into the Dividend Discount Model (DDM or Gordon growth model or perpetuity formula) to find the market value of a farming company's shares. The farming firm: -Is regarded as a mature company since it's quite stable in size and was floated around 30 years ago. It is not a high-growth company; -Share price is not very sensitive to changes in the price of the market portfolio, economic growth, the exchange rate or commodities prices; -Experienced very high earnings in the last 10 years due to unexpected price increases in the organically farmed produce market which it supplies; -Shares are traded in an active liquid market. Your team of analysts present their findings and everyone has different views. While there's no definitive true answer, whose expected dividend growth rate estimate is the most plausible? Assume that the analysts' source data is correct and true, but their inferences might be wrong, and all rates are given as effective annual nominal rates. Select one: a. Alice says 20% pa since that's the firm's Sustainable Growth Rate (SGR) calculated using its 80% pa book return on equity (ROE) multiplied by its 25% plough back ratio (PloughBackRatio=1-PayoutRatio=1- dividend/EPS). O b. Bob says 10% pa since this was the average growth rate of the firm's share price and dividends over the last 10 years. c. Cate says 15% pa since this was the average growth rate of the firm's profit over the last 10 years. d. Dave says 2% pa since this is the expected inflation rate over the next 10 years. e. Eve says -1% pa since this was the average growth rate of the economy over the last 10 years in which there was a major recession
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