You're the CEO of an investment bank's equities research team. Your five analysts are each trying to find the expected total return over the next year of shares in an mining company. The mining firm has the following information:

Is regarded as a mature company since it's quite stable in size and was floated around 35 years ago. It is not a high-growth company;

Share price is very sensitive to changes in the price of the market portfolio, economic growth, the exchange rate and commodities prices. Due to this, its standard deviation of total returns is much higher than that of the market index;

Experienced tough times in the last 15 years due to unexpected falls in commodity prices.

Shares are traded in an active liquid market.

Your team of analysts present their findings, and everyone has different views. While there's no definitive true answer, whose calculation of the expected total return is the most plausible? Assume that, the analysts' source data is correct and true, but their inferences might be wrong. Also all returns and yields are given as effective annual nominal rates.

answer: *Clair says 15% pa since she calculated that this was the discount rate implied by the dividend discount model using the current share price, forecast dividend in one year and a 3% growth rate in dividends thereafter, which is the expected long term inflation rate.

how and why? any calculating process please