YYZ stock sells for $50. The expected annual volatility is 30%. Six month American call options are available with a strike price of $55. The risk free rate is 2%, compounded continuously.

Find the risk-adjusted probability that the stock falls each period, assuming that you model stock price movements every three months. Round intermediate steps and your final answer to four decimals.

		.5084
		.4916
		.4792
		.5208