chance of rolling left vs. right). The next parallel row of pegs has three pegs in it,

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chance of rolling left vs. right). The next parallel row of pegs has three pegs in it, again offset so that each marble will hit exactly one of them and roll left or right, again with equal probabilities. This continues through the last row; let’s say that the number of rows is n so that the last row has n pegs in it ( n 5 6 in the picture, counting the f rst peg at the top as its own row). After rolling off of a peg in the last row, the marble will land in exactly one of n 1 1 bins arranged diagonally under the last row of pegs. Create an Arena simulation model to simulate a probability board with n 5 6 rows of pegs and k 5 1,500 marbles in the reservoir. Animate the marbles bouncing down the board, and also animate the number of marbles accumulating in the bins at the bottom with Level animation objects from the Animate toolbar. In addition, count the number of marbles that land in each of the 7 bins. The proportion of marbles landing in each bin estimates the probabilities of what distribution? What if somebody opens a window to the left of the board and a wind comes in to blow the marbles toward the right as they roll, so that there’s a 75% (rather than 50%) chance that they’ll roll to the right off of each peg?

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Simulation With Arena

ISBN: 9780073401317

6th Edition

Authors: W. David Kelton, Randall Sadowski, Nancy Zupick

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