Consider again the growth option problem of Section 1.2.2. We want to check the impact of less
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Consider again the growth option problem of Section 1.2.2. We want to check the impact of less extreme assumptions about the conditional probabilities for the second movie, but we are unsure which values we should use. So, we assume that the conditional probability of a second success, after a first success, is a, for some unknown value of a; this is also the probability of a second flop, after a first flop. The analysis in Section 1.2.2 shows that if a — 0.5, we should produce the first movie. What is the limit value of a below which we should change our mind?
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