Using simple exponential smoothing and the following time series data, respond to each of the items. (Note the data are the same as exercise 7.)

Period                             Demand
1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131

a. G raph the time series data. What do you observe?

b. Compute all possible forecasts using a smoothing coefficient (α) of 0.35.

c. Compute all possible forecasts using a smoothing coefficient (α) of 0.85.

d. Compute the MADs for each moving average forecast.

e. Which forecast model would you choose? Why?