5.113 Prosecutor’s fallacy An eyewitness to the crime says that the person who committed it was male, between 15 and 20 years old, Hispanic, and drove a blue Honda. The prosecutor points out that a proportion of only 0.001 people living in that city match all those characteristics, and one of them is the defendant. Thus, the prosecutor argues that the probability that the defendant is not guilty is only 0.001. Explain what is wrong with this logic.

(Hint: Is P1match2 = P1not guilty •match2?)