Annual US craft beer production. Refer to the annual US craft beer production time series, Exercise 14.7 (p. 14-10).

a. Calculate the exponentially smoothed series for US beer production for the period 2004–2019 using w = .2.

b. Calculate the exponentially smoothed series using w = .8. L14016 NW CRAFT Month t Yt Exponentially Smoothed Series 1w = .52 Jan 1 280 — Feb 2 281 — Mar 3 250 265.3 Apr 4 246 255.6 May 5 239 — Jun 6 218 — Jul 7 218 — Aug 8 210 — Sep 9 205 — Oct 10 206 — Nov 11 200 — Dec 12 200 —

c. Plot the two exponentially smoothed series (w = .2 and w = .8) on the same graph. Which smoothed series best portrays the long-term trend?