The Pew Research Center asked the same group of voters who were confirmed to have voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election to rate Trump on a feeling thermometer in April 2016 and March 2018. Table 6.8 shows how the group falls into four categories: (1) “skeptics,” who rated Trump on the cold side of the scale both times; (2) “disillusioned,” who rated Trump on the warm side first and on the cold side later; (3) “converts,” who first rated Trump on the cold side and then on the warm side; and (4) “enthusiasts,” who rated Trump on the warm side both times.

a. What percentage of Trump voters fell into each category?

b. What is the probability that we would randomly choose a skeptic from this group of confirmed Trump voters? A disillusioned Trump voter? A converted Trump voter? A Trump voter who remained an enthusiast?

c. What is the probability that a random Trump voter selected from this group either felt more warmly toward him over time or maintained positive feelings for Trump?

d. A left-leaning blogger predicted that it would not take long for Trump voters to turn away from him. Do the data support the blogger’s prediction?