A critical ingredient to studying the general environment is identifying opportunities and threats. As discussed in this chapter, an opportunity is a condition in the environment that, if exploited, helps a company achieve strategic competitiveness. In order to identify opportunities, one must be aware of current and future trends affecting the world around us.
Thomas Fry, senior futurist at the DaVinci Institute, says that the chaotic nature of interconnecting trends and the vast array of possibilities that arise from them is somewhat akin to watching a spinning compass needle. From the way we use phones and e-mail, or recruit new workers to organizations, the climate for business is changing and shifting dramatically and at rapidly increasing rates. Sorting out these changes and making sense of them provides the basis for opportunity decision making. Which ones will dominate and which will fade? Understanding this is crucial for business success.
Your challenge (either individually or as a group) is to identify a trend, technology, entertainment, or design that is likely to alter the way in which business is conducted in the future. Once you have identified your topic, be prepared to discuss:
• Which of the seven segments of the general environment will this affect? (There may be more than one.)
• Describe the impact.
• List some business opportunities that will come from this.
• Identify some existing organizations that stand to benefit.
• What, if any, are the ethical implications?
You should consult a wide variety of sources. For example, the Gartner Group and McKinsey & Company produce market research and forecasts for business. There are also many Web forecasting tools and addresses such as TED (Technology, Entertainment, Design). TED hosts an annual conference for groundbreaking ideas, and you can find videos of their discussions on their Web site. Similarly the DaVinci Institute, Institute for Global Futures, and a host of others offer their own unique vision for tomorrow’s environment.