The island of Aruba is well known for its beaches and predictable warm, sunny weather. In fact, Aruba’s weather is so predictable that the daily newspapers don’t even bother to print a forecast. Strangely enough, how-ever, on New Year’s Eve, as the islanders were counting down the last 10 sec of 2015, it began to rain. What is the probability, from 0 to 1, that 72 hr later the sun will be shining?