Biff and Dilara were arguing over a news feed about a population of catfish (Silurus glanis) in France that had figured out how to hunt feral pigeons. A submerged catfish lying in wait would rush into shallow water (like a killer whale beaching itself when hunting seals), grab a pigeon that had been drinking or bathing at the water’s edge, drag it into deeper water, and swallow it. Biff was skeptical and suggested that if the story had merit, the chance of a successful capture would surely be low: less than 10%.

Dilara suspected that for the strategy to be profitable, the success rate would need to be fairly high, perhaps as high as 40%. To investigate, they tracked down the original article (Cucherousset et al. 2012), which reported that 15 out of 54 attempts were successful. Are these data consistent with Dilara’s conjecture, Biff’s argument, both, or neither?