3. Given the following data about the demand of an item, use exponential smoothing to forecast demand taking a= 0.1 and a= 0.3. Also, plot the original data and the forecasts on graph.

Further, calculate MAD for each of the series and suggest which value of a is more appropriate.
Does the method of exponential smoothing appear to be satisfactory one in this case?

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Quarter Year I II III IV 2005 2006 72 70 160 110 200 90 120 60 110 2007 100 190 150 300 2008 270 350 320