This year Jan Rich, who is ranked number one in women's singles in tennis, and Marie Wacker, who is ranked number three, will play 4 times. If Marie can beat Jan 3 times, she will be ranked number one. The two players have played 20 times before, and Jan has won 15 games. It is expected that this pattern will continue in the future. What is the probability that Marie will be ranked number one after this year? What is the probability that Marie will win all 4 games this year against Jan?