Develop a double exponential smoothing model using smoothing constants = 0.20 and = 0.40. As
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a. Compute the MAD for this model.
b. Plot the forecast values against the actual data.
c. Use the same starting values but try different smoothing constants, say, [(α , β) = (0.10, 0.50), (0.30, 0.30), and (0.40, 0.20)] in an effort to reduce the MAD value.
Refer to Malcar Autoparts Company, which has started producing replacement control micro-computers for automobiles. This has been a growth industry since the first control units were introduced in 1985. Sales data since 1994 are as follows:
YearSales($)
1994…………………240,000
1995…………………218,000
1996…………………405,000
1997…………………587,000
1998…………………795,000
1999…………………762,000
2000…………………998,000
2001……………….1,217,000
2002……………….1,570,000
2003……………….1,947,000
2004……………….2,711,000
2005……………….3,104,000
2006……………….2,918,000
2007……………….4,606,000
2008……………….5,216,000
2009……………….5,010,000
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Related Book For
Business Statistics A Decision Making Approach
ISBN: 9780133021844
9th Edition
Authors: David F. Groebner, Patrick W. Shannon, Phillip C. Fry
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