A big private oil company must decide whether to drill in the Gulf of Mexico. It costs
Question:
A big private oil company must decide whether to drill in the Gulf of Mexico. It costs $1 million to drill, and if oil is found its value is estimated at $6 million. At present, the oil company believes that there is a 45% chance that oil is present. Before drilling begins, the big private oil company can hire a geologist for $100,000 to obtain samples and test for oil. There is only about a 60% chance that the geologist will issue a favorable report. Given that the geologist does issue a favorable report, there is an 85% chance that there is oil. Given an unfavorable report, there is a 22% chance that there is oil. Determine what the big private oil company should do.
Step by Step Answer:
A First Course In Mathematical Modeling
ISBN: 9781285050904
5th Edition
Authors: Frank R. Giordano, William P. Fox, Steven B. Horton