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business analytics data

Questions and Answers of Business Analytics Data

Assume that our level of significance is 0.11. Express the logit, using all significant variables.
Did you drop cell shape uniformity in the previous exercise? Are you surprised that the variable is now a significant predictor? Discuss the importance of retaining variables of borderline
Explain why the deviance difference fell, but only by a small amount.
Explain what will happen to the deviance difference if we rerun the model, dropping the nonsignificant variables. Work by analogy with the linear regression case.
Discuss how you should handle the variables with p-values around 0.05, 0.10, or 0.15.
Discuss whether the variables you cited in Exercise 15 should be used in predicting the class of tumor with a new unseen data set.
Which variables do not appear to be significant predictors of breast tumor class? How can you tell?
Without reference to inferential significance, express the form of the logit.
What is the value of the deviance difference? Is the overall logistic regression significant? How can you tell? What does it mean to say that the overall logistic regression is significant?
Explain why, for data that are missing one or more indicator variable values, it would not be appropriate to simply ignore these missing variables when making an estimation. Provide options for the
Discuss the use of predictors that turn out to be nonsignificant in estimating the response. When might this be appropriate, if at all? Why would this not be appropriate in general?
Discuss the assumption that the odds ratio is constant across the range of the predictor, with respect to various types of relationships between the predictor and the response. Provide modeling
Discuss the role of statistical inference with respect to the huge sample sizes prevalent in data mining.
If the difference between a particular indicator variable and the reference category is not significant, then what should the analyst consider doing?
Describe how we determine the statistical significance of the odds ratio, using a confidence interval.
What is the definition of the odds ratio? What is the relationship between the odds ratio and the slope coefficient ????1? For what quantity is the odds ratio sometimes used as an estimate?
What are odds? What is the difference between odds and probability?
Explain clearly how the slope coefficient ????1, and its estimate b1, may be interpreted in logistic regression. Provide at least two examples, using both a categorical and a continuous predictor.
Explain what is meant by maximum-likelihood estimation and maximum-likelihood estimators.
By hand, derive the logit result g(x) = ????0 + ????1x.
Indicate whether the following statements are true or false. If the statement is false, alter it so that the statement becomes true.a. Logistic regression refers to methods for describing the
Make sure the target variable takes the flag type. Compare the sign of (weight for Age-to-Neuron1)+(weight for Bias-to-Neuron1)*(weight for Neuron 1-to-Output node) for the good risk output node, as
Consider the following quantity: (weight for Age-to-Neuron1)+(weight for Biasto-Neuron1)*(weight for Neuron 1-to-Output node). Explain whether this makes sense, given the data, and why.
Run a NN model predicting income based only on age. Use the default settings and make sure there is one hidden layer with one neuron.
Compare the neural network model with the classification and regression tree (CART) and C4.5 models for this task in Chapter 11. Describe the benefits and drawbacks of the neural network model
Which variables, in order of importance, are identified as most important for classifying churn?
Generate a neural network model for classifying churn based on the other variables. Describe the topology of the model.
Refer to Exercise 7. Show that the adjusted weights result in a smaller prediction error.
Describe how neural networks function nonlinearly.
Generate a C4.5-type decision tree.
Generate a CART decision tree.
Discuss the benefits and drawbacks of a binary tree versus a bushier tree.
Using the ClassifyRisk data set with predictors age, marital status, and income, and target variable risk, find the k-nearest neighbor for Record #1, using k=2 and Minkowski (city-block) distance
Using the data in table 10.5, find the k-nearest neighbor for Record #10, using k=3.
The example in the text regarding using the k-nearest neighbor algorithm for estimation has the closest record, overwhelming the other records in influencing the estimation. Suggest two creative
Refer to Exercise 4. Find the Euclidean distance between each pair of points. Using these points, verify that Euclidean distance is a true distance metric.
Refer to Exercise 3. Alter your data set so that the classification changes for different values of k.
Explain the concept and importance of analyzing risk in business decisions.
Use data tables to conduct simple Monte Carlo simulations.
Use Analytic Solver Platform to develop, implement, and analyze Monte Carlo simulation models.
Compute confidence intervals for the mean value of an output in a simulation model.
Construct and interpret sensitivity, overlay, trend, and box-whisker charts for a simulation model.
Explain the significance of the “flaw of averages.”
Conduct Monte Carlo simulation using historical data and resampling techniques.
Use fitted distributions to define uncertain variables in a simulation.
Define and use custom distributions in Monte Carlo simulations.
Correlate uncertain variables in a simulation model using Analytic Solver Platform.
For the market share model in Problem 5 of Chapter 11, suppose that the estimate of the percentage of new purchasers who will ultimately try the brand is uncertain and assumed to be normally
For the garage-band model in Problem 7 of Chapter 11, suppose that the expected crowd is normally distributed with a mean of 3,000 and standard deviation of 200.Use the NORM.INV function and a
A professional football team is preparing its budget for the next year. One component of the budget is the revenue that they can expect from ticket sales.The home venue, Dylan Stadium, has five
For the new-product model in Problem 9 of Chapter 11, suppose that the first-year sales volume is normally distributed with a mean of 100,000 units and a standard deviation of 10,000. Use the
Financial analysts often use the following model to characterize changes in stock prices:Pt = P0e(m-0.5s2)t+sZ2t where P0 = current stock price Pt = price at time t m = mean (logarithmic) change of
Use Analytic Solver Platform to simulate the Outsourcing Decision Model under the assumptions that the production volume will be triangular with a minimum of 800, maximum of 1,700, and most likely
For the Outsourcing Decision Model, suppose that the demand volume is lognormally distributed with a mean of 1,500 and standard deviation of 500.What is the distribution of the cost differences
Suppose that several variables in the model for the economic value of a customer in Example 11.1 in Chapter 11 are uncertain. Specifically, assume that the revenue per purchase is normal with a mean
For the profit model developed in Example 11.2 in Chapter 11 and the Excel model in Figure 11.4, suppose that the demand is triangular with a minimum of 35,000, maximum of 60,000 and most likely
For the Moore Pharmaceuticals model, suppose that analysts have made the following assumptions:• R&D costs: Triangular($500, $700, $800) in millions of dollars• Clinical trials costs:
Cruz Wedding Photography (see Problem 15 in Chapter 11) believes that the average number of wedding bookings per year can be estimated by triangular distribution with a minimum of 10, maximum of 22,
Use the Newsvendor Model spreadsheet to set up and run a Monte Carlo simulation assuming that demand is Poisson with a mean of 45 but a minimum value of 40 (use the lower cutoff parameter in the
Simulate the newsvendor model for the mini-mart situation described in Problem 12 of Chapter 11.Use the IntUniform distribution in Analytic Solver Platform to model the demand and find the
Using the profit model developed in Chapter 11, implement a financial simulation model for a new product proposal and determine a distribution of profits using the discrete distributions below for
The manager of the extended-stay hotel in Problem 27 of Chapter 11 believes that the number of rooms rented during any given week has a triangular distribution with minimum 32, most likely 38, and
Develop a Monte Carlo simulation model for the garage-band in Problem 7 in Chapter 11 with the following assumptions. The expected crowd is normally distributed with mean of 3,000 and standard
Tanner Park (see Problem 14 in Chapter 11) is a small amusement park that provides a variety of rides and outdoor activities for children and teens. In a typical summer season, the number of adult
Lily’s Gourmet Ice Cream Shop offers a variety of gourmet ice cream and shakes. Although Lily’s competes with other ice cream shops and frozen yogurt stores, none of them offer gourmet ice creams
A plant manager is considering investing in a new$30,000 machine. Use of the new machine is expected to generate a cash flow of about $8,000 per year for each of the next 5 years. However, the cash
The Kelly Theater produces plays and musicals for a regional audience. For a typical performance, the theater sells at least 250 tickets and occasionally reaches its capacity of 600 seats. Most
Develop a simulation model for a 3-year financial analysis of total profit based on the following data and information. Sales volume in the first year is estimated to be 100,000 units and is
The Executive Committee of Reder Electric Vehicles(see Problem 16 in Chapter 11) is debating whether to replace its original model, the REV-Touring, with a new model, the REV-Sport, which would
Develop and analyze a simulation model for Koehler Vision Associates (KVA) in Problem 13 of Chapter 11 with the following assumptions. Assume that the demand is uniform between 110 and 160 per week
For the Hyde Park Surgery Center scenario described in Problem 33 in Chapter 11, suppose that the following assumptions are made. The number of patients served the first year is uniform between 1,300
The Schoch Museum (see Problem 17 in Chapter 11) is embarking on a 5-year fundraising campaign.As a nonprofit institution, the museum finds it challenging to acquire new donors as many donors do not
Review the retirement-planning situation described in Chapter 11 (Example 11.11). Modify the spreadsheet to include the assumptions that the annual salary increase is triangular with a minimum of 1%,
The retirement planning model described in Chapter 11 (Example 11.11) assumes that the data in rows 5–8 of the spreadsheet are the same for each year of the model. Modify the spreadsheet to allow
Adam is 24 years old and has a 401(k) plan through his employer, a large financial institution. His company matches 50% of his contributions up to 6% of his salary. He currently contributes the
Refer back to the college admission director scenario(Problem 36 in Chapter 11). Develop a spreadsheet model and identify uncertain distributions that you believe would be appropriate to conduct a
J&G Bank receives a large number of credit-card applications each month, an average of 30,000 with a standard deviation of 4,000, normally distributed.Approximately 60% of them are approved, but this
SPD Tax Service is a regional tax preparation firm that competes with such national chains as H&R Block. The company is considering expanding and needs a financial model to analyze the decision to
Sturgill Manufacturing, Inc. needs to predict the numbers of machines and employees required to produce its planned production for the coming year.The plant runs three shifts continuously during the
O’Brien Chemicals makes three types of products:industrial cleaning, chemical treatment, and some miscellaneous products. Each is sold in 55-gallon drums. The selling price and unit manufacturing
Find a 95% confidence interval for the mean amount of all Rebco’s bills. Do the same for each customer size separately.
You are unemployed, 21 years old, and searching for a job. Until you accept a job offer, the following situation occurs. At the beginning of each year, you receive a job offer. The annual salary
Find a 95% confidence interval for the mean total cost of all customer orders. Then do this separately for each of the four regions. Create side-by-side box plots of total cost for the four regions.
Find a 95% confidence interval for the mean number of days it takes Rebco’s customers (as a combined group) to pay their bills. Do the same for each customer size separately. Create a box plot for
Continuing the previous problem, analyze part b in Excel as follows. Start with hypothetical population mean GMAT scores for men and women, along with population standard deviations. Enter these at
Import data of interest into Excel from http://wonder.cdc.gov/, a Department of Health and Human Services site.
Import data of interest into Excel from http://www.dot.gov/, the official site of the U.S. Department of Transportation.
Import data of interest into Excel from http://www.ed.gov/, the official site of the U.S. Department of Education. For example, you ought to find some interesting data from the Education Statistics
Import data of interest into Excel from http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin.htm.
Create a pivot table from the Foodmart.cub file. Then for each month, quarter, and year, show the percentage of revenue in each of the product families. For example, you should find that 72.21% of
Create a pivot table from the Foodmart.cub file. Then for each product family and each product department, find the percentage of line items (from the Fact Count measure) of Canada, Mexico, and the
Suppose a bill is considered late if it is paid after 20 days. In this case its “lateness” is the number of days over 20. For example, a bill paid 23 days after billing has a lateness of 3,
Find a 95% confidence interval for the difference between the following means: the mean total order cost for West customers and the mean total order cost for Northeast customers. Do the same for the
In 1969 and again in 1970, a lottery was held to determine who would be drafted and sent to Vietnam in the following year. For each date of the year, a ball was put into an urn. For example, in the
Suppose you want to estimate the population mean of some quantity when the population consists of millions of members (such as the population of all U.S. households). How is it possible that you can
It can be shown that a sum of normally distributedrandom variables is also normally distributed. Doall functions of normal random variables lead tonormal random variables? Consider the
In basketball, a player who is fouled in the act of shooting gets to shoot two free throws. Suppose we hear that one player is an “85% free throw shooter.” If this player is fouled 25 times in
You have been told that the distribution of regular unleaded gasoline prices over all gas stations in Indiana is normally distributed with mean $3.25 and standard deviation $0.075, and you have been
Suppose you have a large data set for some sport. Each row might correspond to a particular team (as in the file P03_57.xlsx on football outcomes, for example) or it might even correspond to a given
A supermarket transactions data set is likely to have “hierarchical” columns of data. For example, for the product sold, there might be columns like Product Family, Product Department, Product

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