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practical management science

Questions and Answers of Practical Management Science

Simple exponential smoothing with 0.3 is being used to forecast sales of radios at Lowland Appliance.Forecasts are made on a monthly basis. After August radio sales are observed, the forecast for
You have been assigned to forecast the number of aircraft engines ordered each month by Commins Engine Company. At the end of February, the forecast is that 100 engines will be ordered during April.
The file P16_27.xlsx contains quarterly sales of Johnson & Johnson. A time series plot of this series indicates a clear upward trend. Use moving averages to forecast this series, experimenting with
Consider the file P16_26.xlsx, which contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. Use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales for the following 12
The file P16_25.xlsx contains the daily closing prices of Wal-Mart stock during a 1-year period. Use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast this time series for the
The closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Index for each trading day for a 1-year period is provided in the file P16_24.xlsx.a. Using a span of 2 days, forecast this index for the next trading
The closing value of the AMEX Airline Index for each trading day during a 1-year period is given in the file P16_23.xlsx.a. How well does the moving average method track this series when the span is
The file P16_22.xlsx contains the daily closing prices of American Express stock for a 1-year period.a. Using a span of 3 days, forecast the price of this stock for the next trading day with the
Suppose that you are interested in predicting the price of a laptop computer based on its various features. The file P16_21.xlsx contains observations on the sales price and a number of potentially
A regional express delivery service company recently conducted a study to investigate the relationship between the cost of shipping a package (Y ), the package weight (X1), and the distance shipped
The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables.The data are listed in the file
Suppose that a regional express delivery service company wants to estimate the cost of shipping a package(Y) as a function of cargo type, where cargo type includes the following possibilities:
David Savageau and Geoffrey Loftus, the authors of Places Rated Almanac (published in 2000 by Macmillan), have ranked 325 metropolitan areas in the United States with consideration of the following
Consider the enrollment data for Business Week’s top 50 U.S. graduate business programs in the file P16_16.xlsx. Use these data to estimate a multiple regression model to assess whether a
Stock market analysts are continually looking for reliable predictors of stock prices. Consider the problem of modeling the price per share of electric utility stocks (Y). Two variables thought to
An antique collector believes that the price received for a particular item increases with its age and with the number of bidders. The file P16_14.xlsx contains data on these three variables for 32
A trucking company wants to predict the yearly maintenance expense (Y ) for a truck using the number of miles driven during the year (X1) and the age of the truck (X2, in years) at the beginning of
Suppose you are an analyst for a company that produces four products, and you are trying to decide how much of each product to produce next month. To model this decision problem, you need the unit
The management of Beta Technologies, Inc., is trying to determine the variable that best explains the variation of employee salaries using a sample of 52 full-time employees; see the file
Sometimes curvature in a scatterplot can be fit adequately (especially to the naked eye) by several trendlines. We discussed the exponential trendline, and the power trendline is discussed in the
We discussed linear and exponential trendlines.Another popular choice is a power trendline, also called a constant elasticity trendline. This trendline has the form y axb, and it has the property
Based on the data in the file P16_08.xlsx from the U.S.Department of Agriculture, explore the relationship between the number of farms (X) and the average size of a farm (Y) in the United States
The file P16_07.xlsx contains observations of the U.S.minimum wage during each of the years from 1950 through 1994. Did the minimum wage grow at roughly a constant rate over this period? Use simple
Do the sales prices of houses in a given community vary systematically with their sizes (as measured in square feet)? Answer this question by estimating a simple regression model where the sales
Management of a home appliance store in Charlotte wants to understand the growth pattern of the monthly sales of DVD units over the past 2 years. The managers have recorded the relevant data in the
The file P16_04.xlsx contains monthly data on production levels and production costs during a 4-year period for a company that produces a single product. Use simple regression on all of the data to
The file P16_03.xlsx gives the annual sales for Microsoft (in millions of dollars) for a 10-year period.a. Fit an exponential trendline to these data.b. By what percentage do you estimate that
The file P16_02.xlsx contains quarterly sales at Intel from 1986 through the first quarter of 2001. Chart these sales through the end of 1996 only, and fit an exponential trendline to these points.
The file P16_01.xlsx contains quarterly sales at Johnson& Johnson from 1991 through the first quarter of 2001. Chart these sales and fit both a linear trendline and an exponential trendline through
One problem with our Excel implementation of the CPM method is that the maximum and minimum formulas for the earliest start time and the latest finish times have to be tailored to the specific AON
Consider a project with six activities. The CPM method has already been implemented, with the results shown in the file P15_38.xlsx. (All times are in months.) This file also shows the number of
Now create a table with weeks along the top and projects along the side. Each entry in the table should indicate how many hours are spent on each project each week. IF functions work here. Finally,
Based on LeBlance et al. (2000). A construction company has eight project managers and has 14 projects scheduled for the next 12 weeks. Each project must be assigned a project manager. The start and
Real-world projects often have milestones where costs are incurred or payments are received. Usually the costs are incurred relatively early, and the payments are received relatively late. Because of
In the previous problem, all of Tom’s activities have fixed durations. Now assume they have PERT distributions with the parameters listed in the file P15_35.xlsx.a. Use @RISK to simulate this
The main concern is when he will complete the project, given that he works only on weekdays. The work proceeds in stages, labeled A through J, as summarized in the table in the file P15_34.xlsx.
Tom Jacobs, an independent contractor, has agreed to build a new room on an existing house. He plans to begin work on Monday morning, June
To build Indiana University’s new law building, the activities in the file P15_33.xlsx must be completed(all times are in months). Assume that all activity times are normally distributed with the
To complete an addition to the Business Building, the activities in the file P15_32.xlsx must be completed(all times are in months). Assume that all activity times are normally distributed with the
The city of Bloomington is about to build a new water treatment plant. After the plant is designed (D), we can select the site (S), the building contractor (C), and the operating personnel (P). After
When an accounting firm audits a corporation, the first phase of the audit involves obtaining knowledge of the business. This phase of the audit requires the activities listed in the file
A company is planning to manufacture a product that consists of three parts (A, B, and C). The company anticipates that it will take 5 weeks to design the three parts and determine the way in which
Horizon Cable is about to expand its cable TV offerings in Smalltown by adding MTV and other stations.The activities listed in the file P15_28.xlsx must be completed before the service expansion can
Consider the (simplified) list of activities and predecessors that are involved in building a house, as shown in the file P15_27.xlsx.a. Draw an AON project network and find the critical path and the
The promoters of a rock concert in Indianapolis must perform the tasks shown in the file P15_26.xlsx before the concert can be held. (All durations are in days.) Draw theAONproject network. Then find
A company has a project that consists of 11 activities, described in the file P15_25.xlsx. Draw an AON project network and then find the critical path and the minimum number of days required to
Before a new product can be introduced at Kehls, the activities shown in the file P15_24.xlsx must be completed, where all times are in weeks.a. Draw the AON project network and determine a critical
What is the mean of this distribution? What are the corresponding values of1 and 2 for the equivalent beta distribution? According to the online help for the generalized beta distribution, its mean
Most of the literature in project scheduling with uncertain activity times advocates the use of the beta distribution for activity times. This is a continuous distribution with four parameters: a
We saw in Chapter 11 how to introduce correlation into an @RISK simulation with RISKCORRMAT functions. We implicitly assumed that the activity durations in Example 15.5 are probabilistically
We indicated in Example 15.5 that the mean project length from the simulation is greater than the project length of 62 days from substituting the mean activity durations (the ones used in earlier
In the model in Example 15.5, suppose bonuses and penalties are incurred for earliness or lateness. Specifically, suppose a bonus of $2000 is received if the project is completed within 60 days, an
Starting with a project schedule where some activities are noncritical, is it ever optimal to crash any of these noncritical activities to meet a given deadline? The idea is that as you keep crashing
In the Monitoring People sheet of the Project Monitoring.xlsx file, we created five tables of daily costs, one for each type of people, and we created a chart for all of these. In each table, the
Then, for example, the cost of reducing the duration of activity H from 12 days to 9 days is c(3) 300(3)2 $2700. Modify the Project Crashing Linear.xlsx model to accommodate this quadratic
This function produces the “increasing cost per day” behavior frequently seen. To try it out in Example 15.3, suppose the crashing cost for activity H, wiring offices, exhibits this quadratic
In the crashing model in Example 15.3, we assumed that the cost per day crashed is constant. This is often unrealistic. For example, it might cost $300 to decrease the duration of an activity from 10
In the model in Example 15.4, suppose each project consists of two activities and the second activity for each project cannot begin until the first activity is completed. Assuming the two activities
Suppose the projects in Example 15.4 are apartment units and the profit is the monthly rent earned from each apartment unit. Assume that rent is paid each month (through month 10) beginning with the
Given the due dates in the previous problem, how would you maximize the number of projects completed on time? (The difference here is that you are ignoring revenues.)
Modify the multiple project-scheduling model in Example 15.4 so that each project has its own due date. These due dates are listed in the file P15_13.xlsx.Assume no revenue is earned unless a project
In the LAN crashing model in Example 15.3, suppose that activity D is now an immediate successor to activity C, that is, activity D cannot begin until activity C is finished. Everything else stays
In the Monitoring Costs sheet of the Project Monitoring.xlsx file, we created two tables of daily costs, one where all activities start at their earliest start times and one where they start at their
Suppose, after doing the analysis in Example 15.2, the project manager sees a problem with the current setup.Activity C, selecting the server, requires five systems people, and activity D, selecting
The “Modeling Issues” section described three alternative types of precedence relationships besides the usual finish-to-start relationship. The following questions ask you to explore the first of
Expanding on the previous problem, there is a third possible approach for finding the project length and the critical path. We already stated that the critical path is the longest path from the Start
We have illustrated the traditional CPM algorithm for finding the project length and the critical path. An alternative method is sometimes used. It sets up a Solver model for finding a feasible
The data in Figure 15.5 for the Gantt chart uses the earliest start times for all activities. These could actually be anywhere between the earliest and latest start times without affecting the
How difficult is it to add new activities to an existing project scheduling model? Answer this question by assuming that there are two other activities, labeled P and Q. Activity P moves selected
In the LAN project, activities C and D can be done concurrently. Suppose instead that activity C is an immediate predecessor of activity D. (Perhaps they use the same employees, and these employees
Use a two-way data table to see how sensitive the project completion time in the LAN project is to the duration of activities E and H (selecting cables and wiring offices). Let the durations of these
Repeat the previous problem, but now keep track of the following outputs in your data table: the project completion time and the slack for each activity. As the duration of activity D changes, do any
Use a one-way data table to see how sensitive the project completion time in the LAN project is to the duration of activity D (selecting software). Let the duration vary from 10 to 16 days in
Based on Kolesar et al. (1974). Metropolis PD Precinct 88 must determine the minimum number of police cars required to meet its needs for the next 24 hours. An average call for service requires 30
Zerox has 16 service centers throughout the United States. Zerox is trying to determine how many technicians it should assign to each service center. How would you approach this problem?
Based on Quinn et al. (1991). Winter Riggers handles approximately $400 million in telephone orders per year. Winter Riggers’ system works as follows. Callers are connected to an agent if one is
Suppose that annually an average of library patrons want to borrow a book. A patron borrows the book for an average of 1 years. Suppose we observe that the book is actually borrowed an average of R
Excessive delays have recently been noted on New York City’s 911 system. Discuss how you would use queueing models to improve the performance of the 911 system.
Bloomington Hospital knows that insurance companies are going to reduce the average length of stay of many types of patients. How can queueing models be used to determine how changes in insurance
The mail order firm of L. L. Pea receives an average of 200 calls per hour, where times between calls are exponentially distributed. It takes an L. L. Pea operator an average of 3 minutes to handle a
On average, 90 patrons arrive per hour at a hotel lobby(interarrival times are exponential) waiting to check in. At present there are five clerks, and patrons wait in a single line for the first
The Newcoat Painting Company has for some time been experiencing high demand for its automobile repainting service. Because it has had to turn away business, management is concerned that the limited
The manager of a large group of employees must decide whether she needs another photocopying machine.The cost of a machine is $40 per 8-hour day regardless of whether the machine is in use. On
At the Franklin Post Office, patrons wait in a single line for the first open window. On average, 100 patrons enter the post office per hour, and each window can serve an average of 45 patrons per
A printing shop receives an average of one order per day. The average length of time required to complete an order is half a day. At any given time, the print shop can work on at most one job.
On average, 40 jobs arrive per day at a factory. The time between arrivals of jobs is exponentially distributed.The factory can process an average of 42 jobs per day, and the time to process a job is
Ships arrive at a port facility at an average rate of two ships every three days. On average, it takes a single crew one day to unload a ship. Assume that interarrival and service times are
It takes an average of 2 minutes to serve each customer. It costs $10 per hour to keep a teller window open, and the bank estimates that it will lose $50 in future profits for each hour that a
On average, 300 customers arrive per hour at a huge branch of Bank
On average, 50 customers arrive per hour at a small post office. Interarrival times are exponentially distributed.Each window can serve an average of 25 customers per hour. Service times are
Run the simulation when station 1 is the bottleneck. Repeat when it is station 2; station 3; station 4; station 5.b. Repeat part a when there are only two buffers in front of each station after
Continuing Problem 50, we might expect that the system will be only as good as the station with the smallest value of siμi (called the bottleneck station). This problem asks you to experiment with
Repeat the previous problem, but now assume that si 3 at each station. Change the μi’s so that the products siμi are the same as in the previous problem.
Each processing time has mean 1μi 0.6 minute and there are three stations.b. Same as parta, except that there are 10 stations.c. Same as parta, except that each processing time has mean 0.9
This problem asks you to experiment with the simulation to gain some insights into congestion. For each of the following parts, assume a Poisson arrival rate of 1 per minute, and assume that
Referring to the multistation serial system in the Series Simulation.xlsm file, let si and 1μi be the number of machines and the mean processing time at station i. Then the mean processing rate at
A company’s warehouse can store up to four units of a good. Each month, an average of 10 orders for the good are received. The times between the receipts of successive orders are exponentially
Consider a series system of the type in the Series Simulation.xlsm file. There are two stations. Each station has three machines, and the mean processing time for each machine is 3.1 minutes. Parts
US Airlines receives an average of 500 calls per hour from customers who want to make reservations, where the times between calls follow an exponential distribution.It takes an average of 3 minutes
A telephone-order sales company must determine how many telephone operators are needed to staff the phones during the 9-to-5 shift. It is estimated that an average of 480 calls are received during

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