Figure 16.14 gives the MINITAB output of using simple exponential smoothing to forecast yearly U.S. lumber production. Here MINITAB has estimated the smoothing constant alpha to be .0361553. Use the MINITAB output to find and report the point prediction of and the 95 percent prediction interval for the total U.S. lumber production in a future year.

Data from Figure 16.14

Transcribed Image Text:

FIGURE 16.14 MINITAB Output of Using Simple Exponential Smoothing to Forecast Lumber Production Lumber Production 40000 39000 38000 37000 36000 35000 34000 33000 32000 31000 Single Exponential Smoothing for Lumber Production T T ·co 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 Time Period 31 Forecast 35782.6 Lower 31588.9 Upper 39976.3 Variable Actual Fits Forecasts 95.0% PI Smoothing Constant Alpha 0.0361553 Accuracy Measures MAPE MAD MSD 5 1712 4201951