The least squares point estimates of the parameters of the tentative hotel room average model are 

where the MINITAB calculated p-values for the importance of the model parameters are given in parentheses. The chi-square statistic p-values for the diagnostic checking of model adequacy are .242 (lag 12), .186 (lag 24), .276 (lag 36), and .461 (lag 48).

(1) Assess the appropriateness of the tentative model.

(2) Use the model to write out an expression for y^*_169.

(3) Hand calculate the point forecast of y^*₁₆₉ to be y^*₁₆₉ (168) = 5.38091 (see Figure 16.28).

Data from Figure 16.28

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8 = .038056 (.000), 4₁ = .2392 (.003), ₂ = .1322 (.104), 3 = -2642 (.001), and 2 = .5271 (.000),