OPEC production. Recall the data for OPEC oil production from Chapter 16, Exercise 45.

A time series plot of monthly OPEC production (thousand barrels/day) is shown here.

a) What time series components do you observe in this series?

b) Develop a 6-month and 12-month moving average model for this series.

c) Fit a single exponential smoothing model to these series.

d) Use these models to forecast the OPEC oil production for March 2007.

e) Compute measures of forecast error (e.g., MAD and MAPE) and compare the accuracy of the forecasts for these two models.

Transcribed Image Text:

OPEC-Prod (Th Bar/Day) 33,000 32,000- 31,000 30,000- 29,000 28,000- 27,000- 26,000- Month Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007