The Charlevoix Seismic Zone (CSZ) is the most seismically active region of eastern Canada. Earthquakes of magnitude 6.0 and over occur once every 52.4 years on average. The last one occurred in 1925. Let us assume that earthquakes occur independently of each other and so the time interval between them follows an Exponential
distribution.
QUESTIONS
1. What was the probability that the next large quake (magnitude 6.0 and over) in CSZ would occur during the next 10 years for someone living in 1926?
2. What is the probability for someone living today?
3. Explain how your answers to Questions 1 and 2 compare with each other.