When the British Columbia government introduced a carbon tax in 2008, it didn’t want to lose votes, as might easily happen with a new tax. It therefore guaranteed that revenue from the carbon tax would be channelled back into reducing income taxes. In 2011 Environics asked 1023 British Columbians whether they supported the tax and found 54% in favour. Politicians could therefore claim that “most people support the tax.” What’s the probability of getting this survey result (or higher) if in fact only 48% of British Columbians support the tax?