Your regular tennis partner has made a friendly wager with you. The two of you will play out one point in which you can serve. The loser pays the winner $100. If your first serve is not in play, you will get a second serve. If your second serve is not in play, you lose the point. You have two kinds of serves, a hard one and a soft one. You know that your hard serve is in play 60% of the time, and that when it is in play, you win the point 70% of the time.

You put your soft serve in play 85% of the time, and when it is in play, you win the point 25% of the time. Should you accept the wager? If so, should you use the hard or soft serve?

AppendixLO1