1. Let be the true proportion of men in your community over the age of 40...

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1. Let θ be the true proportion of men in your community over the age of 40 with hypertension. Consider the following “thought experiment”:

(a) Though you may have little or no expertise in this area, give an initial point estimate of θ.

(b) Now suppose a survey to estimate θ is established in your community, and of the first 5 randomly selected men, 4 are hypertensive. How does this information affect your initial estimate of θ?

(c) Finally, suppose that at the survey’s completion, 400 of 1000 men have emerged as hypertensive. Now what is your estimate of θ?

What guidelines for statistical inference do your answers suggest?

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Bayesian Methods For Data Analysis

ISBN: 9781584886976

3rd Edition

Authors: Bradley P. Carlin, Thomas A. Louis

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