The University of Michigan has conducted an extensive survey of consumers since 1978, including a question on
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The University of Michigan has conducted an extensive survey of consumers since 1978, including a question on consumers' forecasts of inflation. Gather data on inflation expectations from the Michigan survey using FRED. First, plot those forecasts along with forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters for CPI inflation (see the previous problem for the location of the data). Is one set of inflation expectations consistently different from the other? Next, compare the two sets of forecasts with the actual data on the CPI. Make a time-series plot of both forecasts and the actual value. Which survey seems to be more accurate? Does the evidence support the idea that people's inflation forecasts are rational?
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