A DNA match between the defendant and a crime scene blood sample has a probability of 1/100000
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A DNA match between the defendant and a crime scene blood sample has a probability of 1/100000 if the defendant is innocent. There is no other significant evidence.
1. What is the probability of guilt?
2. Suppose we agree that the prior probability of guilt under the (unspecified)
circumstances is 10%. What then is the probability of guilt?
3. The suspect has been picked up through a universal screening program applied to all Australians seeking a Medicare card. So far, 10 million people have been screened. What then is the probability of guilt?
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Related Book For 
Bayesian Artificial Intelligence
ISBN: 9781439815915
2nd Edition
Authors: Kevin B. Korb, Ann E. Nicholson
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