A large cosmetics company markets its products directly to customers in eighteen separate cam¬ paigns annually. Sales brochures are prepared and printed for each campaign and are sold to the sales representatives, who are paid by commission only. In order to allow time for printing and distribution and to give the sales representatives sufficient time to utilize the brochures while making their normal rounds to clientele, it is necessary to forecast sales of the brochures three campaigns in advance. The quantity of brochures sold to representatives in a particular territory for each campaign during 1984, 1985, and the first six campaigns of 1986 are shown in the accompanying table, along with the scheduled print runs for campaigns 7, 8, and 9.

(a) Have you any comments on the levels of the printing runs for the seventh, eighth, and ninth campaigns?

(b) Forecast the sales of brochures for the tenth, eleventh, and twelfth, campaigns of 1986, using trend projection.

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Actual Brochure Sales 1984 1985 Campaign (000) (000) 1986 (000) 1 1,013 865 997 2 923 811 965 3 779 712 877 4 897 712 877 5 819 774 965 6 874 831 1,051 7 879 845 1,091* 8 885 878 1,122* 9 906 840 1,100* 10 869 824 11 844 800 12 823 803 13 834 786 14 789 847 15 833 878 16 986 1,011 17 1,027 1,090 18 1,024 1,141