9.10. In the 2000 Presidential election in the U.S., the Democratic candidate was A1 Gore and the Republican candidate was George W. Bush.

In Palm Beach County, Florida, initial election returns reported 3407 votes for the Reform party candidate, Pat Buchanan. Some political analysts thought that most of these votes may have actually been intended for Gore (whose name was next to Buchanan's on the ballot) but wrongly cast for Buchanan because of the design of the

"butterfly ballot" used in that county, which some voters found confusing. For the 67 counties in Florida, Figure 9.20 is a scatterplot of the countywide vote for the Reform party candidates in 2000

(Buchanan) and in 1996 (Perot).

(a) The top point is for Palm Beach county. What does it suggest?

(b) The prediction equation fitted to all but the observation for Palm Beach county is y = 45.7 - 0.02414x. In Palm Beach county, x = 30,739. Find the predicted Buchanan vote and the residual, and interpret.

(c) Why is the top point, but not each of the two rightmost points, considered a regression outlier? (Note: Statistical analyses predicted that fewer than 900 of the 3407 votes were truly intended for Buchanan. Bush won the state by 537 votes and, with it, the Electoral College and the election. Other factors that played a role were 110.000 disqualified "ovcrvotc"

ballots in which people mistakenly voted for more than one Presidential candidate—with Gore marked on 84,197 ballots and Bush on 37,731—often because of confusion from names being listed on more than one page of the ballot, and 61,000 "undcrvotcs" caused by factors such as "hanging chads" from manual punch-card machines.)