A television network earns an average of $1.6 million each season from a hit program and loses

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A television network earns an average of $1.6 million each season from a hit program and loses an average of $400,000 each season on a program that turns out to be a flop. Of all programs picked up by this network in recent years, 25% turn out to be hits, and 75% turn out to be flops. At a cost of C dollars, a market research firm will analyze a pilot episode of a prospective program and issue a report predicting whether the given program will end up being a hit. If the program is actually going to be a hit, there is a 90% chance that the market researchers will predict the program to be a hit. If the program is actually going to be a flop, there is a 20% chance that the market researchers will predict the program to be a hit.

a. Assuming that C  $160,000, identify the strategy that maximizes this television network’s expected profit in responding to a newly proposed television program.

b. What is the maximum value of C that this television network should be willing to incur in choosing to hire the market research firm?

c. Compute and interpret EVPI for this decision problem.

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Practical Management Science, Revised

ISBN: 9781118373439

3rd Edition

Authors: Wayne L Winston, S. Christian Albright

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