Based on Bukiet et al. (1997). Many Major League teams (including Oakland, Boston, LA Dodgers, and Toronto)

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Based on Bukiet et al. (1997). Many Major League teams (including Oakland, Boston, LA Dodgers, and Toronto) use mathematical models to evaluate baseball players. A common measure of a player’s offensive effectiveness is the number of runs generated per inning

(RPI) if a team were made up of nine identical copies of this player. For example, which team would score more runs: a team with nine copies of Ichiro Suzuki or a team with nine copies of Manny Ramirez? We can use simulation to answer this question. Let’s consider a simplified baseball game in which each plate appearance results in one of six outcomes:

■ Out: Runners do not advance.

■ Walk: Runners advance if forced.

■ Single: Runner on first moves to second. All other runners score.

■ Double: Runner on first moves to third. All other runners score.

■ Triple: All runners on base score.

■ Home Run: All runners and batter score.

A team gets three outs per inning. You are given the data in the file P12_61.xlsx on Ichiro Suzuki and Manny Ramirez from the 2004 season. Use simulation to determine which hitter is more valuable according to the RPI criterion.

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Practical Management Science, Revised

ISBN: 9781118373439

3rd Edition

Authors: Wayne L Winston, S. Christian Albright

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