From the Fed’s Minutes The Fed expects the unemployment rate will drop from 9.8 percent today to 9.25 percent by the end of 2010 and to 8 percent by the end of 2011. Private economists predict that the unemployment rate won’t drop to a more normal 5 or 6 percent until 2013 or 2014. Inflation should stay subdued, but the Fed needs to keep its eye on inflation expectations.

Source: The New York Times, October 14, 2009 Is the Fed predicting that the U.S. economy will move rightward or leftward along a short-run Phillips curve or that the short-run Phillips curve will shift up or down through 2011?