1) A Durbin-Watson statistic greater than 4-dUmeans...

a.

There is no evidence of positive autocorelation.

b.

There is evidence of negative autocorelation.

c.

The test is inconclusive.

d.

There is evidence of positive autocorelation.

2) When using the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing model with both trend and seasonal components, you get the following results for the last time period:

n= 40..296

Tn= 7.488

Fn-3= 1.065

Considering the data is quarterly, what is the forecast value for the next time period (h = 1)?

a.

47.784

b.

48.849

c.

40.296

d.

50.890

3) When calculating seasonal indices, once the ratio to moving averages are calculated, the next step is to...

a.

Find the average of each quarter.

b.

Perform a regression on the quarters over the previous year.

c.

Find the median of each year.

d.

Find the median of each quarter.

4) A researcher wants to include skill in a regression. Unfortunately, since there is no proper way to measure it, it is decided to leave it out. You read their work and realise you have access to data measuring skill. When you run the proper regression, you find that none of the original coefficients change. What would explain this?

a.

The for skill is non-zero.

b.

The covariance between skill and each of the other regressors is not zero.

c.

The variance of skill is increasing.

d.

The covariance between skill and each of the other regressors is zero.

5) What is the appropriate formulation of an autoregressive model of order 4 (p = 4)?

a.

xt= + 1xt-1+ 2xt-2+ 3xt-3+ t

b.

xt= + 1xt-1+ 2xt-2+ 3xt-3+ 4xt-4+ t

c.

xt= + 4xt-4+ t

d.

xt= + 1xt-1+ 2xt-2+ 3xt-3+ 4xt-4