1. In April 2019, a market view on the FTSE100 index from an analyst was given as below: Probability 0.7 0.2 0.1 Scenario Bull FTSE100 Return 20% Neutral Bear 5% -30% Discuss your market view on the FTSE100 for the coming year. Make clear what your subjective probability for each of the possible market scenarios is and their corresponding returns for the index. Although it is your subjective market view, you need to defence it by using most recent macro-economic news, references and/or your history data analysis. History data is available from internet sources (for example, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ %5EFTSE%3FP%3DFTSE/history? period1=1428969600&period2=1586822400&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d). Based on your market view, calculate the expected rate of return for the FTSE100 index and its standard deviation for the coming year. (20 marks)