1. Problem 4.6, page 140 (Forecasting handout.pdf)

TFW S 12:19 AM 56% K Forecasting Handout.pdf 389 recent year.) What MAW 410 forecasting? (Hint: You will have only 3 years of matched a 381 368 d) Compute the forecast for year 6 using exponential singthing initial forecast for year 1 of 3.000 miles. and ( = = Px 374 * . 4.6 The monthly sales for Telco Batteries. Inc. . were. ober 12 using a 3-week lows: Sales with weights of 1. .3. Month Forecast demand for 20 January February 21 er 12 using exponential 15 March 360 and a = 2. Px 14 April 13 May 16 June 8 9 10 11 July 17 13 9 11 7 18 August September 20 serve any trend, cycles. October 20 November 21 recast demand using a December 23 on the same graph as recast demand using a a) Plot the monthly sales data. 3, and .6, using .6 for b) Forecast January sales using each of the following: the same graph. i) Naive method. data, which seems to ii) A 3-month moving average. iii) A 6-month weighted average using . I. .1. .1. 2. .2, and . with the heaviest weights applied to the most recent month cast for years 2 through iv) Exponential smoothing using an o = .3 and a Septeme- a forecast for year 1 of forecast of 18. tual data and the naive v) A trend projection. recast is better? PPxx c) With the data given, which method would allow you to forceas xponential smoothing next March's sales? PX h month. The number . . le the forecast was 42 4.7 The actual demand for the patients at Omaha Emer gency Medical Clinic for the first six weeks of this year follows Week July. what would be Actual No. of Patients 65 sting method for this 62 70 idering the purchase 48 tly on the anticipated 63 en during the past 5 52 Clinic administrator Marc Schniederjans wants you to forecast patient demand at the clinic for week 7 by using this data. You decide to use a weighted moving average method to find this for cast. Your method uses four actual demand levels, with weights of 0.333 on the present period, 0.25 one period ago, 0.25 two period ago, and 0.167 three periods ago. a) What is the value of