15.20 67) : 610 A 46 $46,1 KB/S Baca Saja - Anda tidak dapat menyimp... - With total production of 34 million tons of crude palm oil (CPO) in 2019, Indonesia is one of the world's leading producers. PT. Palma Aneka Raya (PAR) is a multinational firm based in Indonesia that produces crude palm oil from sustainably managed plantations. PAR, which was founded in 1980, has grown to become one of Asia's largest palm oil companies, comprising 100,000 hectares of oil palm plantations in North Sumatra, Riau, and Jambi, with a workforce of 20,309 people. PAR's activities range from simple seeding and planting to refining fresh fruit bunches into sustainable palm oil in high-tech, ecologically friendly facilities. PAR manufactures high-quality goods with sustainable palm oil as a raw material, supported by a strong R&D team and environmentally and socially responsible plantation management. This premium palm oil is marketed to consumers in China, India, and other markets across the world that produce a range of palm oil products that are used in a variety of food products. Palm oil is a versatile raw material with a wide range of applications, including cooking oil, cosmetics, toiletries, lubricants, and biodiesel. Other supporting data is provided in the tables below. You are allowed to contribute more data to answer the questions if necessary, and data sources must be included in your answers. SPOT RATE Currency 1 Chinese Yuan (CNY) Spot Rate IDR 2.262,81 1-year Forward Rate IDR 2.296,75 6-month Forward Rate IDR 2.775,50 1 Indian Rupee (INR) IDR 193,53 IDR 197,42 IDR 196,35 1 US Dollar (USD) IDR 14.320,15 IDR 14.205,35 IDR 14. 14.280,20 Country 4-year annualized interest rate 149 180 day-interest rate 1.75% Indonesia India 10% 1.25% China 8% 1.00% The differential of interest rate, inflation rate and income growth between Indonesia and India in theupcoming period as forecasted are as follows: : Indonesia - India Indonesia - China Probability Interest Inflation Rate Rate Differential Differential Income Interest Inflation Income Growth Rate Rate Growth Differential Differential Differential Differential 30% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 1.00% 2.00% 1.75% 50% 2.00% 1.50%. 1.00% 1.50% 1.75% 2.25% 20% 1.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.25% 0.25% 1.50% The differential of interest rate, inflation rate and income growth in the most recent period betweenIndonesia and India were as follows: Factor Interest rate Differential Indonesia - India 1.00% Indonesia - China 1.50% Inflation rate Differential 2.00% 1.75% Income growth rate differential 1.50% 2.00% Probability Possible spot rate in 6 months 20 % IDR 2.700,90/CNY IDR 195,20/INR 50 % IDR 2.850.70/CNY IDR 194,80/INR U 15.20 @ NR:31-46,1 (67) KB/S Baca Saja - Anda tidak dapat menyimp... - Probability Possible spot rate in 6 months 20% IDR 2.700,90/CNY IDR 195,20/INR 50% IDR 2.850.70/CNY IDR 194,80/INR 30 % IDR 2.925.55/CNY IDR 215,10/INR OPTION Exercise Price Put Option Premium Call Option Premium IDR 198,80/INR IDR 4.5/INR 6-month Put Option IDR 2.785,20/CNY IDR 52/CNY CNY IDR 196,35/INR DR 50/CNY IDR 4/INR -month IDR 2. Call Option Case 1.-LO3 PAR requires phosphoric acid as a raw material in the CPO synthesis process since it dissolves palm sap. PAR purchases 500 tons of phosphoric acid from India, with payment due tomorrow. Phosphoric acid costs INR 250 per kilogram. According to the data studied by PAR, when the IDR depreciates by more than 2% against the INR, the exchange rate of the IDR against the INR will reverse by 65 percent the following day. The IDR has currently depreciated by 3.5 percent. When must the PAR pay its credit payments? Provide thorough computations to support your answer. II b. PAR developed a regression model based on monthly historical data to forecast the IDR/INR exchange rate using fundamental techniques. et = a + a INTt-1 + a2INFt + a3INCt-1 + Et Et = percentage change in the exchange rate of the IDR/INR in period t INTt = average real interest rate differential (Rl interest rate minus Indian interest rate) in the previous period. INFt-1 = inflation differential (Indonesian inflation rate minus Indian inflation rate) over period t. INCt-1= income differential (Indonesian income growth minus Indian income growth) in the previous period. Regression coefficients were estimated as follows: a0 = 0.008 al = 0.5 a 2 = -0.3 a3 = 0.9 What will be the probability distribution of the IDR's percentage change to INR over the upcoming period? C. Because of the high demand for CPO in India, PAR is considering establishing a new factory there. When deciding on a direct investment, fluctuations in the IDR/INR exchange rate are considered. If the predicting results for the following four years using the market-based technique demonstrate that the IDR/INR exchange rate is trending in favor of PAR, a new investment will be made. i. What percentage appreciation or depreciation does this forecast imply over 15.20 A 0.18 46 KB/S ill 67 Baca Saja - Anda tidak dapat menyimp... - Regression coefficients were estimated as follows: a0 = 0.008 al = 0.5 a 2 = -0.3 a3 -0.9 What will be the probability distribution of the IDR's percentage change to INR over the upcoming period? C. Because of the high demand for CPO in India, PAR is considering establishing a new factory there. When deciding on a direct investment, fluctuations in the IDR/INR exchange rate are considered. If the predicting results for the following four years using the market-based technique demonstrate that the IDR/INR exchange rate is trending in favor of PAR, a new investment will be made. i. What percentage appreciation or depreciation does this forecast imply over the 4-year period? ii. If the forward rate is used to forecast exchange rates, what will be the forecast for the Indian Rupee's spot rate in 4 years? Based on your calculations, Should PAR expand by building a factory in India? Case 2 -LO3 PAR exports 50,000 tons of CPO products to China. CPO costs CNY 7500 per ton. This transaction is due in 180 days. Should PAR hedge the transaction? Explain your answer in detail using comprehensive andaccurate calculations. Case 3-L03 PAR purchased 500 ton of phosphoric acid from India, which is due in 180 days. Should PAR hedge the transaction? Explain your answer in detail using comprehensive and accurate calculations. Phosphoric acid costs INR 225 per kg. II III = 15.20 67) : 610 A 46 $46,1 KB/S Baca Saja - Anda tidak dapat menyimp... - With total production of 34 million tons of crude palm oil (CPO) in 2019, Indonesia is one of the world's leading producers. PT. Palma Aneka Raya (PAR) is a multinational firm based in Indonesia that produces crude palm oil from sustainably managed plantations. PAR, which was founded in 1980, has grown to become one of Asia's largest palm oil companies, comprising 100,000 hectares of oil palm plantations in North Sumatra, Riau, and Jambi, with a workforce of 20,309 people. PAR's activities range from simple seeding and planting to refining fresh fruit bunches into sustainable palm oil in high-tech, ecologically friendly facilities. PAR manufactures high-quality goods with sustainable palm oil as a raw material, supported by a strong R&D team and environmentally and socially responsible plantation management. This premium palm oil is marketed to consumers in China, India, and other markets across the world that produce a range of palm oil products that are used in a variety of food products. Palm oil is a versatile raw material with a wide range of applications, including cooking oil, cosmetics, toiletries, lubricants, and biodiesel. Other supporting data is provided in the tables below. You are allowed to contribute more data to answer the questions if necessary, and data sources must be included in your answers. SPOT RATE Currency 1 Chinese Yuan (CNY) Spot Rate IDR 2.262,81 1-year Forward Rate IDR 2.296,75 6-month Forward Rate IDR 2.775,50 1 Indian Rupee (INR) IDR 193,53 IDR 197,42 IDR 196,35 1 US Dollar (USD) IDR 14.320,15 IDR 14.205,35 IDR 14. 14.280,20 Country 4-year annualized interest rate 149 180 day-interest rate 1.75% Indonesia India 10% 1.25% China 8% 1.00% The differential of interest rate, inflation rate and income growth between Indonesia and India in theupcoming period as forecasted are as follows: : Indonesia - India Indonesia - China Probability Interest Inflation Rate Rate Differential Differential Income Interest Inflation Income Growth Rate Rate Growth Differential Differential Differential Differential 30% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 1.00% 2.00% 1.75% 50% 2.00% 1.50%. 1.00% 1.50% 1.75% 2.25% 20% 1.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.25% 0.25% 1.50% The differential of interest rate, inflation rate and income growth in the most recent period betweenIndonesia and India were as follows: Factor Interest rate Differential Indonesia - India 1.00% Indonesia - China 1.50% Inflation rate Differential 2.00% 1.75% Income growth rate differential 1.50% 2.00% Probability Possible spot rate in 6 months 20 % IDR 2.700,90/CNY IDR 195,20/INR 50 % IDR 2.850.70/CNY IDR 194,80/INR U 15.20 @ NR:31-46,1 (67) KB/S Baca Saja - Anda tidak dapat menyimp... - Probability Possible spot rate in 6 months 20% IDR 2.700,90/CNY IDR 195,20/INR 50% IDR 2.850.70/CNY IDR 194,80/INR 30 % IDR 2.925.55/CNY IDR 215,10/INR OPTION Exercise Price Put Option Premium Call Option Premium IDR 198,80/INR IDR 4.5/INR 6-month Put Option IDR 2.785,20/CNY IDR 52/CNY CNY IDR 196,35/INR DR 50/CNY IDR 4/INR -month IDR 2. Call Option Case 1.-LO3 PAR requires phosphoric acid as a raw material in the CPO synthesis process since it dissolves palm sap. PAR purchases 500 tons of phosphoric acid from India, with payment due tomorrow. Phosphoric acid costs INR 250 per kilogram. According to the data studied by PAR, when the IDR depreciates by more than 2% against the INR, the exchange rate of the IDR against the INR will reverse by 65 percent the following day. The IDR has currently depreciated by 3.5 percent. When must the PAR pay its credit payments? Provide thorough computations to support your answer. II b. PAR developed a regression model based on monthly historical data to forecast the IDR/INR exchange rate using fundamental techniques. et = a + a INTt-1 + a2INFt + a3INCt-1 + Et Et = percentage change in the exchange rate of the IDR/INR in period t INTt = average real interest rate differential (Rl interest rate minus Indian interest rate) in the previous period. INFt-1 = inflation differential (Indonesian inflation rate minus Indian inflation rate) over period t. INCt-1= income differential (Indonesian income growth minus Indian income growth) in the previous period. Regression coefficients were estimated as follows: a0 = 0.008 al = 0.5 a 2 = -0.3 a3 = 0.9 What will be the probability distribution of the IDR's percentage change to INR over the upcoming period? C. Because of the high demand for CPO in India, PAR is considering establishing a new factory there. When deciding on a direct investment, fluctuations in the IDR/INR exchange rate are considered. If the predicting results for the following four years using the market-based technique demonstrate that the IDR/INR exchange rate is trending in favor of PAR, a new investment will be made. i. What percentage appreciation or depreciation does this forecast imply over 15.20 A 0.18 46 KB/S ill 67 Baca Saja - Anda tidak dapat menyimp... - Regression coefficients were estimated as follows: a0 = 0.008 al = 0.5 a 2 = -0.3 a3 -0.9 What will be the probability distribution of the IDR's percentage change to INR over the upcoming period? C. Because of the high demand for CPO in India, PAR is considering establishing a new factory there. When deciding on a direct investment, fluctuations in the IDR/INR exchange rate are considered. If the predicting results for the following four years using the market-based technique demonstrate that the IDR/INR exchange rate is trending in favor of PAR, a new investment will be made. i. What percentage appreciation or depreciation does this forecast imply over the 4-year period? ii. If the forward rate is used to forecast exchange rates, what will be the forecast for the Indian Rupee's spot rate in 4 years? Based on your calculations, Should PAR expand by building a factory in India? Case 2 -LO3 PAR exports 50,000 tons of CPO products to China. CPO costs CNY 7500 per ton. This transaction is due in 180 days. Should PAR hedge the transaction? Explain your answer in detail using comprehensive andaccurate calculations. Case 3-L03 PAR purchased 500 ton of phosphoric acid from India, which is due in 180 days. Should PAR hedge the transaction? Explain your answer in detail using comprehensive and accurate calculations. Phosphoric acid costs INR 225 per kg. II III =